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The Nostradamus Awards 2015

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Well it’s that time of year again, when we try to act all enthusiastic about a new year, make numbers resolutions to join a gym and try to get fit ( i give 3 months!) and where we here in the bunker take a second to reflect on the year that was, and see which of us predicted the most er stuff.

So let’s go through the predictions shall we?

Dave’s predictions:

Technology

  • With the final demise of Windows XP. I think sales of Windows 7 will rocket. Microsoft will continue to make modifications  to Windows 8, adding more and more features to make it more like windows 7 in order to recapture a great many disenfranchised users who have a windows 8 laptop and cant figure out how to use the thing or spend all their time in desktop mode. [WIN]

Looks like start button is back in windows 10 with Microsoft trying to position Windows 10 more in the familiar vein of windows 7 (for me a great iteration of window – considering some of the previous missteps(windows 98) and some of the later misfires (Windows Vista ,all the weird and wonderful version of Windows 8  )

you can read more about windows 10 here

  • Sales of the Surface pro 2 will improve, but it will probably be the last such product that Microsoft will produce. Which is a shame, because with a built-in Wacom digitizer, and stylus, the Surface Pro2 looks like a great device for drawing in.[LOSE]

Looks like Dave called time on the surface too early with the release this year of the surface 3  Dave likes the look and power of a surface pro, combined with  the built in Wacom digitizer would make it desktop beating tablet computer that could be used for serious drawing in.

total(1/2)

Films

  • The Lego Movie Will be ace![WIN]

well I think its safe to say the Lego move was Ace! not only did the soundtrack contain the absolute ear worm that was ‘Everything is awesome’, but to date has taken $257,760,692 domestically at the box office and according to
box office mojo (www.boxofficemojo.com) the fourth highest grossing film of the year. ( I will be using BOM for all box office figures) it has also, I think helped usher in a new golden age of animation, where intelligent story telling is king over increasingly bland sequels.

  • RoboCop remake will suck had [WIN]

yup, languishing at #48 on the list is Robocop. which is not great for a movies yet the original Robocop finished #16 for the year 1987.
Ah but maybe it made more at the box office?
Robocop. total domestic gross adjusted to 1987 prices is : $28,757,000
Robocop (1987 )s total domestic gross was  $53,424,681
so yeah, not looking good for Alex Murphy there:(

  • I don’t think the new Muppets movie will not be as good as the Muppets[WIN]

Yearly results for the Muppets (2011)  ranked  # 34

Muppets most wanted ranked # 52

which was a shame for both films. For heavens sakes Green lantern finished above the Muppets at #24!

  • Captain America: The Winter Soldier will be ace![WIN]

ranked in the top 3 of the year? Yeah I reckon CA:TWS was a pretty ace film

  • The Amazing Spiderman 2 will be  OK [WIN]

finished in the top 9 didn’t go down well with a lot of fans.

  • Despite all the excitement, Godzilla  remake will not make as much money at the box office as the original   (with inflation taken into account)[WIN]

1998’s Godzilla’s Adjusted Box office total gross was $236,006,800 compared against Godzilla(2014) box Office total gross was   : $200,676,069

  • X-men: Days of future past: I think will be OK [WIN]

Yeah, finishing 7th for the year and marking a return to form and an attempt to removes all the continuity issues in the franchise. it nicely sets thing up ready for the age of apokolypse

  • Transformers: Age of extinction will suck hard[WIN]

Finishing at #5 for the year its obvious that T:AOE is a rip-roaring success so lets compare T:AOE against he rest of the franchise shall we?

Name Domestic Total Ad. Gross Ranking for the year
Transformers $2376,784,700 #3
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $437,675,500 #2
Transformers: Dark of the Moon $359,398,400 #2
Transformers: Age of extinction $246,654,100 #5

Amazingly the most succesful film in the franchise so far is Revenge of the fallen – I know I am as shocked as you are.

Based on rankings and adjusted Total Box office gross it seems that T:AOE is the worst performing film in the franchise, so worthy of the title ‘most suckiest Transformers to date’

  •  Although the fans are excited by it, and Karen Gillan will be great, Guardians of the Galaxy will not do as well as Captain America: The Winter Soldier[LOSE]

On the face of it, this should have been a no-brainer. Captain America, a well established character in pop culture already with 2 massively popular films under his belt up against a  more obscure team that had a short print run as a standalone title for a coupe of year but hadn’t been in print for nearly 5 years. the biggest stars in the cast seemed to be Vin diesel and Bradley Cooper, and they were only voicing the CGI Characters.

Well boy was I wrong. it seemed that this: might have  helped really seal the deal for GOTG:

ok so how wrong was Dave ?  $725,32704 wrong . A worthy victory to a great film. That’s not to say in any way that Captain America: The Winter soldier was a weak film  GOTG was the highest grossing film of the year and the Captain still got a bronze medal for his efforts beating Spiderman – Take that web-head!

  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will suck hard [WIN]

ok, let’s have another table comparing these 2 films

Name Domestic Total Ad. Gross Ranking for the year
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (1990) $259,659,400 5
Teenage mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) $192,151,300 12

Well I reckon that speaks for itself. you win Dave.

Total :(9/10)

Sport

  •     The Sochi winter Olympics will not be anywhere near as popular as previous winter Olympics – I for one will not be watching because I disagree with many of Russia’s policies (I don’t want to soapbox , so lets leave it at that eh?)
  •     The Winter Olympics will be overshadowed by security concerns and possibly a terrorist attack –  I hope I get this wrong but in the last week there has been 2 bomb attacks  400 miles from Sochi and I can’t help think this is a precursor to yet more terror

Looks like the Sochi Olympics went off well, no security issues. As for if it was more succesful than the Vancouver Games. then this data gathered from Olympic Factsheets help to  illustrate this:

Item Vancouver Sochi
Potential Audience 3.8 Billion 4.1 Billion
Hours Broadcast on digital 6,000 60,000
Shared Coverage (available across all platforms) 57,000 102,000
Coverage on TV 240 Channels 464 Channels
Of which are Free to air 128 Channels 310 Channels
Coverage on Websites 100 websites No figure given

Vancouver FactSheet can be found here

Sochi FactSheet can be found here

so Looks like Dave Doesn’t score anything this round. but then again, sports is not really his thing

(0/2)

Politics

  •     Despite UKIP’s assertions, We will not be knee-deep in Romanians and Bulgarians, hell-bent on trying to play the benefit system [PENDING]
  •     While we are talking about it, Nigel Farrage’s call to allow some Syrian refugees into the country will create schism in the party.[Lose]
  •     The Scottish Independence referendum will be defeated[WIN]

regarding statistics for Bulgarian and Romanian migration into the UK for 2014

from the Office for National Statistics Website:

What data for 2014 will be available and when?

International Passenger Survey (IPS) 1 statistics estimate the number of long-term migrants entering and leaving the UK during a given period. A long-term migrant is defined as someone changing their country of usual residence for a period of at least one year. Estimates for the year ending March 2014 will be published on 28 August 2014. The first annual figures for calendar year 2014 will be published in May 2015. These figures will show estimates of how many long-term immigrants have arrived from Bulgaria and Romania.

So it looks like we will have to wait till May next year – We will compare migration from Bulgaria and Romania against a selection of other EU countries to be determined and draw up a table of migration by country ,  so as we can’t judge this one yet, A stewards enquiry will be scheduled for May. It’s possible that the winner of the Nostradamus award could change – watch this space!

(1/3)

Tv

  •     Doctor Who will return with Peter Capaldi for a complete series, Steven Moffat will write fewer episodes for this series, signalling a scaling back of his involvement in the show before leaving after the Christmas special[WIN]

(1/1)

well Dave was right that we would get Peter Capaldi for a full season and he was kind of right in that Steven Moffat Co wrote more stories,  this season he wrote 2 stories solo and co wrote 2 which gives us a total of 4 as opposed to the previous season where  he wrote all of the specials plus 2 episodes making a total of 6 episodes. No you might say ‘But Dave, that’s not fair, in effect the season had more episodes in it !’

well if we count the episodes he wrote, then he wrote 2 last year, and depending on how heavy his involvement was in this season you could argue that his co write credits shouldn’t count if all he was doing was polishing another writer’s work

I know this is contentions, but it looks like Dave has a win here

 

Total : 12/ 18 ( 66.67%)

 

Mike’s predictions:

Technology

  • I think that the demise of Windows XP will drive customers not into the arms of windows 8.1, but rather into the hands of a Linux.  I think that PC gamers that typically relied on windows to play titles will move to SteamBox as a cheaper and more viable alternative to the Microsoft Behemoth.[Lose]

there are no figures published that can back this up, Sorry Mike, you lose on this one.

  • Steam Box will be launched this year – it will off a compelling experience to gamers.[LOSE]

Valve announced in August that the Steam Box/Steam machine will be delayed until 2015

  • Google Glass won’t quite reach mainstream adoption – but will advance forwards.[WIN]

Whilst it has featured prominently in episode of ‘click’ you can’t easily pop into a branch of PC world and buy Google glass.

  • The convergence model of Ubuntu will be released – an Ubuntu phone will be available making the Ubuntu experience available on desktop, laptop and tablet / phone[Lose]

There has been no data to back up this claim. Mike did not submit anything to prove this. So Sorry, mike, you lose too.

  • The Ubuntu TV won’t be available this year.[LOSE]

its available on the ubuntu website right now here

  • Sales of the Surface Pro will not improve – the market for premium touch devices will dissolve as customer realise that the real proposition is cheaper commodity hardware and service delivering.[LOSE]

Looks like Microsoft have finally got something good with surface pro 3 , it seems to be out selling the previous iteration of surface too.

  • I predict more FLOSS conversion stories like Munich – the spiraling costs of maintaining proprietary software will lead cash strapped governments to follow in Munich’s footsteps and start to implement FLOSS software.[Win]

there are a few stories of governments and governmental departments switching to and announcing a desire to switch to FLOSS, so a victory there.

(2/7)

Films

  • The Lego Movie Will be ace!

No argument here. The Lego movie finished the year the 4th most popular film of the year. possibly due to the catchy theme tune

  • Robocop will be an interesting film that examines what makes us human – It will do well at the box office.

Sorry Officer Murphy you finished 49th for the year and a rotten tomatoes rating of 48% i think its fair to say it didn’t really do well at the box office

  • Muppets Most Wanted won’t have the same level of advertising that previous films has received.  Assuming that there is not a massive push – and as it’s due to be released in March there probably won’t be – it won’t be as successful as the Muppet Movie.[WIN]

whilst there was some adverting surrounding the film it certainly ended the year lower in the charts than the previous release, It also made less money at the box office

The captain finished 3rd for the year, I reckon that’s pretty ace!

  • The Amazing Spiderman 2 will be a flop.  the failure of Sony to capitalise on the Spiderman licence will lead to the talk of Marvel re-aquiring the spiderman licence.[WIN]

critics are divided about the spiderman film. Almost everyone agrees Paul Giamatti was criminally underused in the production and there are rumours swirling that Sony are on the verge of a deal with marvel that would mean spiderman would appear in Avengers:Civil war there is also the possibility that following the  less-than-stellar performance at the box office, marvel could end up requiring the licence simply because Sony can’t make a decent return on it.

  • Despite all the excitement, Godzilla  remake will not make as much money at the box office as the original   (with inflation taken into account)[WIN]

we already covered this

  • X-men: Days of future past: I think will perform well.[WIN]

finished in the top 10 for the year, and is just outside the top 10 highest box office grosses for Fox, it certainly hasnt’ been a failure in any way, shape or form

  • Transformers: Age of extinction will perform very badly at the box office.[LOSE]

although it’s the weakest of the franchise so far (see above) it still finished in the top 5 films for the year.

  • Although the fans are excited by it, and Karen Gillan will be great, Guardians of the Galaxy will not do as well as Captain America: The Winter Soldier[LOSE]

see, this is what happens when you copy someone elses predictions!

  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will be a summer box office success – the kids will love it. [LOSE]

it finished in the top 20 but its debatable how much kids love it over the Nickelodeon tv show

(6/10)

Mike’s Total 8/17 ( 47%)

 

Rachel’s predictions:

Film :

  • Book thief will be “the new hunger games”[Lose]

what? strictly Speaking this film released in 2013, but lets take a look at it anyway. It was up against the Hunger games:Catching Fire. And whilst it made $76,586,316 during its box office run, it wasnt enough to compete with either The hunger Games:Catching Fire or Mockingjay part one with a box office of $424,668,047 and $336,155,000 respectively  and finished 108 for the year.

  • 300 rise of an empire will be good – but not as good as the original 300.[WIN]
  • Captain America – Winter Soldier will be really good and will take well at the box office.[WIN]

The captain had a great film and did well at the box office(see above)

  • Amazing Spiderman 2 will not do as well at the box office than the amazing Spiderman[WIN]

haven’t we all talked about this already?

  • Godzilla will do very well at the box office – Dave is plain wrong when he suggests other wise.  It will spawn talk of other remakes and other sequels to Godzilla[WIN]

Godzilla finished 10th for the year. Let’s compare Box Offices:

Name Domestic Total Ad. Gross Ranking for the year
Godzilla (1998) $236,006,800 9
Godzilla (2014) $195,617,000 10

So on the face of it the earlier film performed better, yet  the newer film got the sequel, currently penciled in for 2018 – go figure. But it did end up in the top 10, it’s a grudging win there

  • X-Men – Days of Future Past will be excellent and will do well at the box office.[WIN]

finished 7th for the year, and just outiside the top 10 highed grossing films from Fox,  XM:DOFP goes a long way to resolve continuity problems and set the stage for XMen Age of Apokalypse

  • The Disney film “Maleficent” will do well in the box office – due to sheer volume rather than story.

Finished higher than XM:DOFP and seems to be the start of a series of Live action Disney films showing how some Disney villains came about.

  • The Children’s #1 film this year will be how to train your dragon 2.[LOSE]

How to train your dragon was pipped to the post by the Lego movie sorry!

  • Dawn of the planet of the Apes will be ace and will get reviews of 7+ /10

in actual fact metacritics average rating is 79%

  • Guardians of the Galaxy and there will surely to be a sequel and a spin off – and it will take less than the original avengers.[WIN]

guardians of the Galaxy 2 is confirmed for 2017, there is an animated TV spin off on the cards and it did take less than the Avengers, despite finishing top for the year!

  • Sin City a dame to die for will be really good.[LOSE]

Sin City: A dame to die for, didn’t make it into Box office mojo’s top 100 films for the year. It got a rotten tomatoes rating 44% of and a metacritic average rating of 46

  • Bombs for this year are  :  Transformers : Age of Extinction  and Teenage Mutant Teenage Turtles.[WIN]

TMNT Rotten tomatoes rating is 22%. Transformers rotten tomatoes ratings is 18%  Can’t really argue this one

  • The Breaking box office will be Hunger games – Mocking Jay part 1[LOSE]

If i read this question right, the box office winner will be MockingJay:Part 1, close but no Cigar, that honor belongs to Guardians of the Galaxy

  • Noah will be a box office stinker.[LOSE]

amazingly, finished the year higher than Hobbit: the battle of the five armies and had a rotten tomatoes rating of 77% so hardly a stinker

  • Monuments men will be a surprise hit[WIN]

finished 38 for the year, while not a blistering hit, still did better than Robocop –  what the heck its in the top 50 right?

  • Rassie will include : Vampire accademy and Nymphomaniac. [PENDING]

The Razzie awards will be held February 21, 2015. no nominations have been announced as yet, This is another prediction requiring a stewards enquiry

Rachels score (10/16) 62.5%

 

which  at the moment, pending steward’s enquiries means that this years winner of the Nostradamus award is:

DAVE

nos2015Dave.

 

Expect predictions for this year shortly.

 

 

 

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